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Red157
452264.5
198673.9
235725.3
Blue176
449950.3
392861.7
198232.2
74%Model gave it26%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions19315150100250300157176

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
73.90.6
75.274.6
Auto21.1
Teleop23.0
End29.8
red by 12.2
61.70.8
60.461.2
Auto20.3
Teleop22.9
End18.5
Second
64.50.6
65.865.2
Auto21.6
Teleop22.2
End20.7
red by 14.1
4499
#13
50.30.8
49.149.9
Auto20.1
Teleop15.8
End14.4
Third
2357
#34
25.30.6
26.626.0
Auto9.8
Teleop5.4
End10.1
blue by 7.0
1982
#21
32.20.8
31.031.8
Auto11.7
Teleop5.7
End14.8