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Red143
399647.8
552850.8
495513.5
Blue125
494737.7
760536.0
201630.2
74%Model gave it26%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions130100050150200143125

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
50.80.3
51.151.5
Auto14.8
Teleop7.5
End28.5
red by 13.2
4947
#21
37.70.4
34.134.5
Auto12.7
Teleop11.8
End13.2
Second
47.80.3
48.148.4
Auto13.8
Teleop15.2
End18.8
red by 11.8
36.00.4
32.432.8
Auto16.5
Teleop5.4
End14.1
Third
4955
#25
13.50.3
13.814.1
Auto4.2
Teleop1.1
End8.2
blue by 16.8
2016
#12
30.20.4
26.727.0
Auto10.2
Teleop4.5
End15.5