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Red124
141841.0
218631.6
450521.4
Blue155
219935.1
554641.5
33926.5
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10311250150200124155

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
41.00.2
40.841.0
Auto10.6
Teleop9.5
End21.0
blue by 0.5
41.51.2
40.241.4
Auto12.9
Teleop10.0
End18.6
Second
31.60.2
31.431.6
Auto6.4
Teleop7.6
End17.6
blue by 3.5
2199
#19
35.11.2
33.835.0
Auto12.5
Teleop6.2
End16.5
Third
4505
#30
21.40.2
21.221.4
Auto9.7
Teleop2.1
End9.6
blue by 5.1
339
#17
26.51.2
25.226.4
Auto9.3
Teleop5.3
End11.9