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Red199
168465.6
353657.3
317536.0
Blue186
546055.9
353446.8
353943.2
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions172160100150200250199186

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
65.61.0
63.564.5
Auto17.6
Teleop34.8
End13.2
red by 9.7
55.91.1
55.656.7
Auto22.6
Teleop17.3
End16.1
Second
57.31.0
55.256.2
Auto18.4
Teleop13.1
End25.8
red by 10.5
46.80.9
46.547.5
Auto12.7
Teleop12.9
End21.3
Third
3175
#15
36.01.0
33.934.9
Auto9.6
Teleop7.3
End19.0
blue by 7.2
3539
#14
43.20.9
43.043.9
Auto9.6
Teleop14.5
End19.0