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Red102
331322.9
453948.8
448019.7
Blue124
327719.1
329438.6
327519.7
66%Model gave it34%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10669050150200250102124

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
48.80.3
48.548.8
Auto11.8
Teleop12.1
End24.8
red by 10.2
38.61.2
34.836.0
Auto7.9
Teleop8.4
End22.3
Second
22.90.3
22.622.9
Auto4.5
Teleop4.3
End14.0
red by 3.2
3275
#11
19.71.2
15.917.2
Auto9.4
Teleop3.2
End7.1
Third
4480
#16
19.70.3
19.419.7
Auto2.8
Teleop1.7
End15.1
red by 0.5
19.11.2
15.316.6
Auto5.1
Teleop8.2
End5.9