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Red54
116019.9
512422.0
265819.6
Blue95
5997.6
519943.9
656029.9
20%Model gave it80%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions60960501505495

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
22.00.7
23.522.7
Auto7.7
Teleop7.7
End6.5
blue by 21.9
43.90.6
43.143.7
Auto8.3
Teleop23.1
End12.4
Second
1160
#11
19.90.7
20.019.2
Auto8.6
Teleop7.3
End4.0
blue by 10.0
29.90.6
33.934.5
Auto7.2
Teleop12.7
End10.0
Third
2658
#36
19.60.7
17.416.7
Auto8.0
Teleop7.0
End4.6
red by 12.0
599
#15
7.60.6
8.49.0
Auto2.3
Teleop2.3
End3.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
14%Cargo oddsMissed36%Cargo oddsEarned
Hangar
71%Hangar oddsMissed94%Hangar oddsEarned