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Red89
811616.3
642139.2
414337.9
Blue95
999918.1
204019.9
233832.5
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1125101001502008995

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
39.20.5
39.739.2
Auto12.2
Teleop16.4
End10.7
red by 6.7
2338
#22
32.52.0
34.836.8
Auto10.0
Teleop13.7
End8.8
Second
4143
#20
37.90.5
36.135.6
Auto9.0
Teleop19.9
End9.2
red by 18.1
2040
#18
19.92.0
17.719.8
Auto7.6
Teleop7.1
End5.5
Third
8116
#29
16.30.5
20.920.3
Auto5.8
Teleop6.5
End4.1
blue by 1.9
9999
#11
18.13.4
12.015.4
Auto6.0
Teleop9.3
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
84%Cargo oddsEarned15%Cargo oddsEarned
Hangar
71%Hangar oddsEarned76%Hangar oddsMissed