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Red41
676311.7
124712.4
176819.9
Blue65
49256.5
66317.8
13127.4
21%Model gave it79%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions40521020306070804165

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1768
#15
19.90.2
17.517.7
Auto6.6
Teleop8.6
End4.6
blue by 7.5
131
#4
27.41.4
25.026.5
Auto6.0
Teleop11.9
End9.4
Second
1247
#20
12.40.2
12.012.2
Auto4.9
Teleop4.2
End3.3
blue by 5.5
663
#11
17.81.4
16.918.4
Auto2.6
Teleop10.3
End4.9
Third
6763
#13
11.70.2
9.39.5
Auto3.9
Teleop4.5
End3.3
red by 5.2
4925
#24
6.51.4
5.36.7
Auto2.0
Teleop2.9
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
50%Cargo oddsMissed33%Cargo oddsEarned
Hangar
15%Hangar oddsMissed37%Hangar oddsEarned