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Red70
433619.3
85159.3
11843.8
Blue50
419223.6
637726.5
541426.3
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions78880501502002507050

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
118
#3
43.80.4
46.846.4
Auto8.9
Teleop23.1
End11.7
red by 17.3
6377
#11
26.52.2
25.923.7
Auto8.8
Teleop11.1
End6.5
Second
19.30.4
16.315.9
Auto5.8
Teleop7.5
End5.9
blue by 7.0
26.32.2
26.524.2
Auto8.7
Teleop9.7
End7.9
Third
8515
#12
9.30.4
8.98.5
Auto2.0
Teleop3.7
End3.5
blue by 14.3
4192
#13
23.62.2
27.325.1
Auto4.4
Teleop11.0
End8.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
88%Cargo oddsMissed59%Cargo oddsMissed
Hangar
83%Hangar oddsEarned69%Hangar oddsMissed