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Red129
596513.3
547261.1
17956.7
Blue163
299256.6
395936.5
449965.9
16%Model gave it84%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12916650100150200250129163

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5472
#14
61.10.2
58.759.0
Auto14.0
Teleop39.5
End7.2
blue by 4.8
65.90.8
67.768.5
Auto17.2
Teleop41.0
End7.2
Second
179
#10
56.70.2
54.454.6
Auto14.7
Teleop34.4
End7.4
red by 0.1
56.60.8
54.154.9
Auto14.5
Teleop34.1
End7.7
Third
5965
#41
13.30.2
13.613.9
Auto6.2
Teleop3.1
End4.1
blue by 23.2
36.50.8
32.733.5
Auto10.3
Teleop19.5
End6.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Sustainability
70%Sustainability oddsEarned93%Sustainability oddsEarned
Activation
91%Activation oddsMissed95%Activation oddsEarned