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Red144
299256.6
651729.7
363049.9
Blue113
756537.6
457637.4
243843.5
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14612580100160180200144113

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
56.60.1
55.955.8
Auto14.5
Teleop34.1
End7.7
red by 13.0
43.50.2
43.943.8
Auto11.7
Teleop24.0
End7.7
Second
49.90.1
49.349.2
Auto11.8
Teleop28.0
End10.1
red by 12.3
7565
#18
37.60.2
38.037.8
Auto10.4
Teleop21.3
End5.9
Third
6517
#30
29.70.1
29.128.9
Auto7.3
Teleop14.6
End7.8
blue by 7.8
4576
#24
37.40.2
37.837.7
Auto8.6
Teleop21.1
End7.8