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Red140
603673.6
7853.8
11867.9
Blue186
97263.2
632859.9
68758.6
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions205174100150250140186

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6036
#16
73.61.1
74.773.6
Auto16.5
Teleop46.3
End7.8
red by 10.4
972
#26
63.20.3
62.262.5
Auto14.6
Teleop38.1
End8.5
Second
118
#2
67.91.1
69.067.9
Auto17.8
Teleop37.8
End10.0
red by 7.9
6328
#57
59.90.3
59.059.3
Auto21.4
Teleop30.5
End5.9
Third
78
#22
53.81.1
54.953.8
Auto15.4
Teleop28.6
End9.9
blue by 4.8
687
#10
58.60.4
57.257.6
Auto13.7
Teleop35.6
End8.3