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Red122
17325.2
69454.5
15729.1
Blue117
16639.5
46740.6
808552.3
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions114144050200250300122117

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
694
#2
54.50.2
55.956.1
Auto8.9
Teleop39.8
End3.9
red by 2.2
8085
#13
52.31.0
51.750.7
Auto11.1
Teleop33.3
End7.2
Second
157
#16
29.10.2
31.331.5
Auto11.3
Teleop12.4
End5.7
blue by 11.4
467
#53
40.61.0
38.337.3
Auto9.2
Teleop24.8
End6.7
Third
173
#50
25.20.2
22.923.1
Auto9.3
Teleop9.1
End7.0
blue by 14.3
166
#49
39.51.0
43.442.4
Auto5.2
Teleop26.6
End7.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Sustainability
24%Sustainability oddsMissed80%Sustainability oddsEarned
Activation
85%Activation oddsEarned80%Activation oddsMissed