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Red167
292832.3
999042.3
241256.2
Blue117
252230.3
491137.6
408929.2
74%Model gave it26%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12910250150200167117

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
56.20.7
54.555.2
Auto13.0
Teleop32.8
End9.8
red by 18.6
37.60.4
37.237.6
Auto7.7
Teleop21.4
End8.7
Second
42.30.7
40.641.3
Auto9.3
Teleop27.7
End5.7
red by 11.9
2522
#17
30.30.4
30.030.3
Auto10.0
Teleop13.7
End6.9
Third
2928
#18
32.30.7
30.631.3
Auto14.5
Teleop11.6
End6.4
red by 3.1
4089
#12
29.20.4
28.929.2
Auto8.9
Teleop12.3
End8.5