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Red167
414127.1
59943.8
473849.4
Blue139
162236.8
416031.8
656043.8
62%Model gave it38%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13011650100150200167139

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
49.40.8
49.250.0
Auto12.7
Teleop30.0
End6.7
red by 5.6
6560
#17
43.80.6
43.243.8
Auto14.4
Teleop25.1
End4.1
Second
599
#2
43.80.8
43.744.5
Auto11.5
Teleop25.5
End6.8
red by 7.0
36.80.6
36.236.8
Auto9.6
Teleop19.5
End7.6
Third
4141
#18
27.10.8
26.927.7
Auto6.8
Teleop13.2
End7.0
blue by 4.8
4160
#16
31.80.6
31.231.8
Auto7.1
Teleop17.2
End7.6