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Red167
207567.5
14867.1
427061.7
Blue183
546065.9
161965.6
291071.8
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions168158100200250167183

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2075
#10
67.50.6
69.168.6
Auto15.5
Teleop46.9
End1.3
blue by 4.2
71.80.3
71.571.2
Auto11.3
Teleop52.8
End1.6
Second
148
#14
67.10.6
68.768.1
Auto11.3
Teleop51.6
End1.6
red by 1.2
5460
#20
65.90.3
65.565.3
Auto10.9
Teleop52.5
End0.7
Third
61.70.6
63.462.8
Auto10.6
Teleop48.0
End1.9
blue by 3.9
1619
#28
65.60.3
65.064.8
Auto15.4
Teleop45.9
End0.5