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Red149
348746.8
174143.9
317644.6
Blue172
427251.9
314740.9
150153.7
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14015250100200250149172

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
46.80.4
46.446.8
Auto14.1
Teleop24.8
End7.5
blue by 6.9
53.70.6
52.753.3
Auto14.5
Teleop30.6
End7.6
Second
3176
#19
44.60.4
44.344.6
Auto7.8
Teleop31.1
End5.2
blue by 7.3
51.90.6
50.951.5
Auto16.0
Teleop28.5
End6.7
Third
1741
#16
43.90.4
43.643.9
Auto10.9
Teleop25.3
End7.2
red by 3.0
3147
#24
40.90.6
39.940.5
Auto13.3
Teleop20.3
End7.2