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Red125
563536.1
307545.2
157450.8
Blue121
223044.4
565446.2
321142.1
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions141143110120130150160170180190125121

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
50.80.4
50.950.5
Auto12.4
Teleop30.0
End8.2
red by 4.6
46.20.8
46.745.9
Auto8.3
Teleop29.5
End8.2
Second
3075
#23
45.20.4
45.344.8
Auto11.7
Teleop24.8
End8.5
red by 0.8
2230
#21
44.40.8
44.944.1
Auto13.6
Teleop24.0
End6.7
Third
5635
#28
36.10.4
36.235.7
Auto12.6
Teleop15.6
End8.0
blue by 6.0
3211
#18
42.10.8
42.641.8
Auto15.1
Teleop21.1
End6.0