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Red140
4564B13.4
271344.3
346762.9
Blue107
615335.7
6329B27.5
632849.6
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions117113708090100130140150140107

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
62.92.1
60.062.0
Auto15.6
Teleop36.4
End8.7
red by 13.3
6328
#11
49.60.1
44.744.6
Auto18.2
Teleop23.1
End7.4
Second
44.32.1
37.239.3
Auto9.1
Teleop30.0
End4.8
red by 8.6
6153
#16
35.70.1
37.437.3
Auto11.4
Teleop17.0
End7.4
Third
13.43.4
10.013.4
Auto8.2
Teleop5.7
End-0.1
blue by 14.1
27.50.1
26.126.0
Auto5.7
Teleop13.0
End8.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Sustainability
72%Sustainability oddsEarned27%Sustainability oddsEarned
Activation
67%Activation oddsMissed85%Activation oddsMissed