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Red124
353935.3
150650.3
30242.1
Blue111
54830.5
57342.5
341437.4
67%Model gave it33%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions141114050100200250124111

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
50.30.1
50.250.2
Auto11.0
Teleop28.0
End10.7
red by 7.8
573
#18
42.50.0
42.542.5
Auto13.4
Teleop21.4
End7.4
Second
302
#16
42.10.1
42.041.9
Auto11.7
Teleop23.7
End6.7
red by 4.7
3414
#11
37.40.0
37.437.4
Auto13.2
Teleop17.0
End6.7
Third
3539
#14
35.30.1
35.235.2
Auto7.0
Teleop18.5
End8.5
red by 4.8
548
#12
30.50.0
30.630.6
Auto8.9
Teleop15.8
End5.8