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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15110850200250101111

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
64.62.3
56.354.0
Auto17.5
Teleop34.9
End10.7
red by 25.9
217
#37
38.70.3
50.851.1
Auto8.9
Teleop24.0
End4.7
Second
5436
#28
44.52.3
42.840.5
Auto12.3
Teleop25.3
End6.3
red by 16.7
9215
#36
27.80.3
27.227.5
Auto11.0
Teleop12.0
End4.8
Third
5114
#25
43.02.3
40.738.4
Auto12.0
Teleop23.7
End6.9
red by 16.1
5612
#35
26.90.3
28.929.2
Auto7.0
Teleop12.8
End7.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Sustainability
60%Sustainability oddsEarned32%Sustainability oddsEarned
Activation
96%Activation oddsMissed81%Activation oddsEarned