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Red103
586017.5
556133.7
842627.7
Blue104
32220.1
168442.5
366726.9
19%Model gave it81%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions77984060120140103104

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
33.70.5
32.432.9
Auto10.7
Teleop14.2
End8.8
blue by 8.8
42.50.1
42.442.5
Auto12.7
Teleop23.0
End6.8
Second
8426
#19
27.70.5
26.326.8
Auto9.3
Teleop12.6
End5.7
red by 0.7
3667
#11
26.90.1
26.826.9
Auto5.2
Teleop15.9
End5.8
Third
5860
#31
17.50.5
16.116.6
Auto6.2
Teleop3.9
End7.4
blue by 2.6
322
#13
20.10.1
19.920.1
Auto3.4
Teleop7.7
End8.9