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Red170
239952.0
589563.6
550546.0
Blue139
107240.0
540953.9
174555.5
76%Model gave it24%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions16013880100120180200220170139

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5895
#12
63.61.2
62.163.2
Auto14.2
Teleop39.0
End7.4
red by 8.1
1745
#23
55.50.4
52.653.0
Auto10.8
Teleop35.6
End8.6
Second
2399
#14
52.01.2
43.044.1
Auto15.0
Teleop27.3
End8.9
blue by 1.9
5409
#33
53.90.4
44.645.0
Auto12.8
Teleop32.2
End8.8
Third
5505
#48
46.01.2
48.049.2
Auto12.8
Teleop25.7
End5.9
red by 6.0
1072
#40
40.00.4
35.535.9
Auto11.8
Teleop21.2
End7.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Sustainability
81%Sustainability oddsEarned64%Sustainability oddsEarned
Activation
88%Activation oddsEarned92%Activation oddsMissed