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Red107
118949.2
586023.7
170152.2
Blue120
546059.6
317555.4
608519.5
38%Model gave it62%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions134145100200107120

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
52.20.5
52.952.5
Auto13.1
Teleop32.2
End6.8
blue by 7.4
59.60.3
59.859.5
Auto16.3
Teleop35.1
End8.1
Second
49.20.5
49.949.5
Auto16.1
Teleop24.8
End8.3
blue by 6.2
55.40.3
55.655.2
Auto14.4
Teleop30.8
End10.2
Third
5860
#22
23.70.5
24.424.0
Auto7.5
Teleop10.4
End5.8
red by 4.2
6085
#21
19.50.3
19.719.3
Auto5.0
Teleop6.8
End7.8