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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6781020406010012014016010571

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
40.03.0
23.926.9
Auto13.3
Teleop16.0
End10.8
red by 11.0
9208
#34
29.00.6
29.929.3
Auto8.8
Teleop15.7
End4.5
Second
36.94.5
23.828.3
Auto8.0
Teleop19.3
End9.6
red by 15.5
2959
#28
21.51.0
25.024.0
Auto7.1
Teleop8.7
End5.7
Third
5247
#37
14.64.5
16.921.4
Auto2.6
Teleop8.9
End3.0
blue by 5.6
5182
#19
20.21.0
19.718.8
Auto2.8
Teleop12.1
End5.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Sustainability
3%Sustainability oddsMissed5%Sustainability oddsMissed
Activation
71%Activation oddsEarned37%Activation oddsMissed