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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions98955015095127

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
47.70.2
42.843.0
Auto11.5
Teleop28.2
End7.9
red by 10.0
37.72.5
33.636.1
Auto11.2
Teleop18.5
End8.1
Second
5086
#19
35.50.2
32.732.9
Auto8.7
Teleop19.4
End7.4
red by 2.1
33.32.5
29.231.7
Auto8.5
Teleop16.5
End8.4
Third
7808
#27
17.40.3
16.216.5
Auto6.5
Teleop4.9
End6.0
blue by 15.1
3618
#13
32.52.5
27.029.5
Auto7.9
Teleop19.4
End5.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Sustainability
5%Sustainability oddsMissed4%Sustainability oddsEarned
Activation
86%Activation oddsMissed69%Activation oddsEarned