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Red126
563843.9
247051.3
284640.4
Blue121
218130.4
883621.4
460763.3
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14211650100200126121

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
51.30.3
50.850.5
Auto14.3
Teleop28.0
End8.0
blue by 12.0
63.30.6
61.161.6
Auto13.9
Teleop39.1
End9.0
Second
43.90.3
43.042.7
Auto11.3
Teleop24.4
End7.7
red by 13.5
2181
#30
30.40.6
31.632.2
Auto7.5
Teleop12.8
End10.4
Third
2846
#35
40.40.3
39.539.2
Auto13.5
Teleop20.0
End6.4
red by 19.0
8836
#36
21.40.6
19.920.4
Auto7.5
Teleop7.7
End6.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Sustainability
44%Sustainability oddsMissed38%Sustainability oddsEarned
Activation
92%Activation oddsEarned83%Activation oddsEarned