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Red192
353872.4
394055.4
409948.3
Blue194
299256.9
102350.6
347852.0
61%Model gave it39%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions178168100150200250192194

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3538
#17
72.40.6
71.472.0
Auto15.6
Teleop44.1
End10.7
red by 15.5
56.90.7
56.657.3
Auto14.4
Teleop33.6
End8.4
Second
55.40.6
54.455.0
Auto12.1
Teleop33.8
End7.0
red by 3.4
3478
#43
52.00.7
51.752.3
Auto13.1
Teleop30.3
End8.2
Third
4099
#11
48.30.6
47.347.9
Auto11.3
Teleop28.7
End7.7
blue by 2.3
1023
#19
50.60.7
50.350.9
Auto10.6
Teleop32.1
End8.0