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Red182
432950.4
174658.1
318459.7
Blue151
49462.3
115644.9
112351.4
66%Model gave it34%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions175163120140200220240182151

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3184
#24
59.70.2
58.558.8
Auto15.4
Teleop35.4
End6.6
blue by 2.6
494
#9
62.30.2
61.861.6
Auto16.9
Teleop34.7
End8.4
Second
1746
#14
58.10.2
57.057.2
Auto13.1
Teleop35.6
End8.9
red by 6.8
1123
#59
51.40.2
50.850.6
Auto11.6
Teleop31.3
End7.3
Third
50.40.2
50.150.3
Auto13.7
Teleop27.3
End9.7
red by 5.5
44.90.2
44.444.2
Auto12.2
Teleop25.2
End7.8