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Red185
353872.4
394055.4
409948.3
Blue194
49462.3
115644.9
112351.4
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions18116280100120140200220240185194

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3538
#17
72.40.4
72.072.4
Auto15.6
Teleop44.1
End10.7
red by 10.1
494
#9
62.30.7
61.662.3
Auto16.9
Teleop34.7
End8.4
Second
55.40.4
55.055.4
Auto12.1
Teleop33.8
End7.0
red by 4.0
1123
#59
51.40.7
50.651.3
Auto11.6
Teleop31.3
End7.3
Third
4099
#11
48.30.4
47.948.3
Auto11.3
Teleop28.7
End7.7
red by 3.3
44.90.7
44.244.9
Auto12.2
Teleop25.2
End7.8