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Red161
173537.5
115338.2
346760.4
Blue152
176849.9
632435.8
271341.2
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13613080100120160180200161152

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.40.5
58.258.7
Auto15.0
Teleop35.4
End8.7
red by 10.5
49.90.6
49.750.3
Auto11.4
Teleop31.9
End5.5
Second
1153
#28
38.20.5
36.036.5
Auto10.3
Teleop20.7
End7.0
blue by 3.0
2713
#15
41.20.6
41.041.6
Auto11.6
Teleop23.4
End6.2
Third
1735
#17
37.50.5
35.335.8
Auto9.5
Teleop20.7
End7.0
red by 1.7
6324
#16
35.80.6
35.335.8
Auto11.9
Teleop18.1
End6.1