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Red122
403953.6
765919.6
111447.9
Blue126
316139.2
132544.7
873110.9
82%Model gave it18%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1349350150200122126

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
53.60.1
53.353.3
Auto14.1
Teleop28.7
End10.8
red by 8.9
44.70.5
43.944.4
Auto11.5
Teleop25.8
End7.5
Second
47.90.1
47.647.5
Auto12.9
Teleop25.7
End9.3
red by 8.7
3161
#12
39.20.5
38.438.9
Auto8.1
Teleop25.4
End5.7
Third
7659
#18
19.60.1
19.319.2
Auto7.2
Teleop7.5
End4.9
red by 8.7
8731
#24
10.90.5
10.110.6
Auto1.9
Teleop4.1
End4.9