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Red98
293514.8
497645.7
124135.8
Blue120
873110.9
132544.7
316139.2
61%Model gave it39%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1049640608012014016098120

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
45.70.0
45.845.8
Auto12.5
Teleop24.2
End9.0
red by 1.0
44.70.5
43.343.9
Auto11.5
Teleop25.8
End7.5
Second
35.80.0
35.935.9
Auto8.8
Teleop20.3
End6.8
blue by 3.4
3161
#12
39.20.5
37.838.4
Auto8.1
Teleop25.4
End5.7
Third
2935
#28
14.80.0
14.814.9
Auto4.2
Teleop6.9
End3.7
red by 3.9
8731
#24
10.90.5
9.510.1
Auto1.9
Teleop4.1
End4.9