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Red163
373936.3
490355.6
132567.1
Blue151
468849.6
492047.3
86537.6
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions16713580100120180200220163151

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
67.10.2
65.465.7
Auto16.7
Teleop39.4
End9.6
red by 17.5
49.60.3
49.249.6
Auto10.9
Teleop29.8
End8.4
Second
55.60.2
54.054.2
Auto14.1
Teleop33.0
End7.7
red by 8.3
4920
#10
47.30.3
47.047.3
Auto14.1
Teleop24.7
End7.5
Third
3739
#38
36.30.2
34.734.9
Auto10.7
Teleop20.1
End5.7
blue by 1.3
865
#15
37.60.3
37.337.6
Auto10.8
Teleop17.7
End9.1