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Red131
685417.9
124153.2
260948.5
Blue151
772223.5
220054.1
540652.9
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13013880100120160180200131151

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
53.20.1
54.454.4
Auto14.4
Teleop30.6
End8.2
blue by 0.8
54.10.2
53.353.5
Auto15.4
Teleop31.2
End7.3
Second
48.50.1
49.649.7
Auto14.5
Teleop26.4
End7.6
blue by 4.4
52.90.2
52.152.3
Auto14.8
Teleop30.4
End7.7
Third
6854
#31
17.90.1
19.019.1
Auto7.5
Teleop2.5
End7.8
blue by 5.6
7722
#34
23.50.2
22.722.9
Auto8.4
Teleop7.5
End7.7