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Red172
368346.8
467863.4
57199.8
Blue132
151134.7
131048.3
128534.2
64%Model gave it36%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions169142050100200250300172132

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
63.40.4
75.375.7
Auto17.2
Teleop37.3
End5.8
red by 15.2
48.30.0
53.953.8
Auto15.5
Teleop23.2
End8.6
Second
46.80.4
58.659.0
Auto9.1
Teleop30.5
End7.0
red by 12.1
1511
#15
34.70.0
40.340.2
Auto6.9
Teleop22.6
End5.6
Third
5719
#25
9.80.4
21.622.0
Auto4.9
Teleop1.3
End4.4
blue by 24.4
1285
#21
34.20.0
39.839.8
Auto12.3
Teleop16.4
End5.8