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Red10
205653.7
755840.3
99982.2
Blue0
301547.8
909843.1
86526.1
64%Model gave it36%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions166141050100200250300100

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2056
#10
53.73.2
71.868.5
Auto12.6
Teleop28.5
End8.8
red by 5.8
3015
#20
47.83.0
53.650.6
Auto14.7
Teleop27.1
End5.9
Second
40.33.2
58.555.2
Auto11.2
Teleop23.1
End5.6
blue by 2.7
43.13.0
48.945.9
Auto11.2
Teleop25.6
End7.2
Third
9998
#19
2.24.7
28.323.7
Auto3.5
Teleop-3.6
End3.2
blue by 23.9
865
#14
26.13.0
31.928.9
Auto7.4
Teleop11.6
End7.1