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Red178
36050.5
177847.3
321858.4
Blue172
252164.7
413151.8
252242.1
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions163166050100200250300350178172

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
58.40.4
57.357.7
Auto14.8
Teleop33.1
End9.8
blue by 6.3
64.70.4
64.364.7
Auto15.2
Teleop37.8
End10.2
Second
360
#8
50.50.4
49.549.9
Auto14.4
Teleop28.1
End7.7
blue by 1.3
4131
#31
51.80.4
51.451.8
Auto13.2
Teleop30.9
End7.3
Third
1778
#12
47.30.4
46.246.7
Auto13.1
Teleop27.1
End7.5
red by 5.1
2522
#36
42.10.4
41.842.1
Auto12.1
Teleop22.9
End7.2