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Red85
921931.6
580026.9
177220.7
Blue117
920036.7
919944.8
806614.6
28%Model gave it72%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions821025015085117

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
31.60.0
31.631.6
Auto9.6
Teleop17.0
End5.2
blue by 13.1
44.80.3
43.844.1
Auto12.3
Teleop24.6
End7.8
Second
26.90.0
26.926.9
Auto10.8
Teleop9.1
End7.0
blue by 9.8
36.70.3
35.736.1
Auto11.8
Teleop17.4
End7.6
Third
1772
#28
20.70.0
20.720.7
Auto4.5
Teleop9.3
End6.8
red by 6.1
8066
#16
14.60.3
13.613.9
Auto3.5
Teleop5.1
End6.0