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Red109
365530.3
171432.0
494638.7
Blue126
949642.6
694127.2
172927.1
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions107996080120140109126

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4946
#15
38.70.9
36.337.2
Auto13.8
Teleop19.8
End5.1
blue by 4.0
9496
#23
42.62.4
38.841.2
Auto15.9
Teleop25.3
End1.5
Second
1714
#54
32.00.9
30.531.4
Auto11.0
Teleop19.9
End1.1
red by 4.9
6941
#62
27.22.4
26.929.2
Auto12.1
Teleop14.3
End0.8
Third
3655
#13
30.30.9
29.029.9
Auto8.1
Teleop20.5
End1.7
red by 3.2
27.12.4
24.727.1
Auto10.5
Teleop13.7
End2.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
87%Melody oddsEarned86%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
66%Ensemble oddsMissed23%Ensemble oddsEarned