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Red54
365633.3
694127.2
902335.4
Blue97
285424.4
461347.4
59728.7
47%Model gave it53%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions101102607080901101205497

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9023
#19
35.42.5
29.226.7
Auto12.1
Teleop21.7
End1.6
blue by 11.9
47.40.2
43.643.8
Auto12.7
Teleop32.4
End2.3
Second
33.32.5
30.427.9
Auto10.0
Teleop19.7
End3.5
red by 4.6
597
#16
28.70.2
25.625.8
Auto9.9
Teleop17.0
End1.9
Third
6941
#62
27.22.5
32.229.7
Auto12.1
Teleop14.3
End0.8
red by 2.8
2854
#49
24.40.2
22.622.8
Auto7.7
Teleop14.6
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
93%Melody oddsMissed96%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
64%Ensemble oddsMissed24%Ensemble oddsMissed