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Red99
94265.4
299230.7
167858.3
Blue82
491731.7
609036.6
59728.7
41%Model gave it59%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions991090501502009982

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
58.30.6
54.655.2
Auto18.1
Teleop32.7
End7.5
red by 21.7
6090
#33
36.61.0
36.835.8
Auto12.5
Teleop20.5
End3.6
Second
2992
#35
30.70.6
30.330.9
Auto11.3
Teleop17.6
End1.8
blue by 1.0
4917
#31
31.71.0
32.131.0
Auto8.6
Teleop20.6
End2.6
Third
9426
#57
5.40.6
5.56.1
Auto3.7
Teleop0.7
End1.0
blue by 23.4
597
#16
28.71.0
28.827.8
Auto9.9
Teleop17.0
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
94%Melody oddsEarned95%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
53%Ensemble oddsEarned27%Ensemble oddsMissed