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Red52
64765.3
643211.7
425320.2
Blue25
957412.1
71287.4
598512.2
46%Model gave it54%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions353620304050605225

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
20.21.3
18.820.1
Auto5.1
Teleop14.6
End0.4
red by 8.0
5985
#23
12.20.6
11.410.8
Auto3.9
Teleop6.6
End1.7
Second
6432
#19
11.71.8
9.911.7
Auto6.1
Teleop4.4
End1.2
blue by 0.5
9574
#15
12.10.6
12.411.8
Auto5.6
Teleop5.8
End0.7
Third
6476
#29
5.31.8
3.65.3
Auto-0.0
Teleop4.7
End0.6
blue by 2.1
7128
#39
7.40.6
8.07.4
Auto1.7
Teleop3.6
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
21%Melody oddsEarned16%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
7%Ensemble oddsMissed9%Ensemble oddsMissed