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Red9
99931.8
99708.5
650910.2
Blue16
99851.9
99956.4
94339.1
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions33311020405060916

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6509
Unranked
10.21.5
8.87.3
Auto5.1
Teleop3.1
End1.9
red by 1.0
9433
Unranked
9.10.2
10.510.3
Auto2.3
Teleop4.3
End2.5
Second
9970
Unranked
8.51.5
5.74.2
Auto2.7
Teleop5.5
End0.4
red by 2.2
9995
Unranked
6.40.2
3.93.7
Auto1.6
Teleop3.9
End0.8
Third
9993
Unranked
1.81.5
5.74.2
Auto-0.6
Teleop2.0
End0.4
blue by 0.1
9985
Unranked
1.90.2
3.93.6
Auto0.2
Teleop1.1
End0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
9%Melody oddsMissed14%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
16%Ensemble oddsMissed16%Ensemble oddsMissed