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Red70
96816.1
412318.6
114833.4
Blue43
876821.1
76077.5
586912.8
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions523401020406070807043

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
33.41.7
22.524.2
Auto8.9
Teleop20.9
End3.6
red by 12.4
8768
#26
21.10.7
16.116.7
Auto3.6
Teleop15.0
End2.5
Second
4123
#15
18.62.1
13.115.2
Auto7.2
Teleop9.8
End1.6
red by 5.9
5869
#40
12.81.1
8.79.9
Auto2.6
Teleop9.7
End0.5
Third
968
#17
16.12.1
9.011.0
Auto3.8
Teleop11.6
End0.6
red by 8.6
7607
#31
7.50.9
7.98.8
Auto4.1
Teleop2.7
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
52%Melody oddsEarned28%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
54%Ensemble oddsEarned20%Ensemble oddsMissed