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Red20
114819.8
961517.2
85214.8
Blue119
715736.1
59728.3
330919.5
19%Model gave it81%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions589405015020119

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1148
#24
19.82.5
25.923.4
Auto8.3
Teleop10.2
End1.3
blue by 16.3
36.11.2
30.731.9
Auto14.2
Teleop20.9
End1.0
Second
9615
#32
17.22.5
20.017.6
Auto8.1
Teleop8.4
End0.7
blue by 11.1
597
#20
28.31.2
25.226.4
Auto7.8
Teleop18.4
End2.1
Third
8521
#41
4.82.5
11.08.6
Auto0.9
Teleop2.8
End1.1
blue by 14.7
3309
#35
19.51.2
24.926.2
Auto7.0
Teleop11.3
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
35%Melody oddsMissed72%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
15%Ensemble oddsMissed22%Ensemble oddsMissed