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Red54
519940.3
513723.7
940832.5
Blue46
85214.8
39919.1
473836.2
82%Model gave it18%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions108730501505446

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
40.32.6
41.138.5
Auto9.8
Teleop25.9
End4.7
red by 4.1
4738
#15
36.21.9
39.837.9
Auto12.6
Teleop21.1
End2.5
Second
9408
#22
32.52.6
31.228.6
Auto7.2
Teleop24.0
End1.4
red by 13.4
399
#39
19.11.9
21.419.5
Auto5.7
Teleop12.1
End1.4
Third
5137
#34
23.72.6
20.818.2
Auto9.1
Teleop14.4
End0.3
red by 18.9
8521
#41
4.81.9
8.66.6
Auto0.9
Teleop2.8
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
34%Melody oddsMissed53%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
42%Ensemble oddsMissed19%Ensemble oddsMissed