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Red32
142521.8
325715.6
Blue65
469825.6
25314.4
545820.8
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions486901001503265

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1425
#16
21.81.0
23.422.4
Auto13.3
Teleop5.2
End3.3
blue by 3.8
4698
#15
25.60.0
25.825.8
Auto10.9
Teleop10.4
End4.3
Second
3257
#33
15.61.0
15.814.7
Auto5.1
Teleop8.7
End1.8
blue by 5.2
20.80.0
19.919.9
Auto7.0
Teleop10.3
End3.5
Third
6.11.6
6.64.9
Auto0.6
Teleop4.9
End0.6
blue by 8.3
253
#22
14.40.0
14.414.3
Auto4.9
Teleop6.5
End3.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
24%Melody oddsMissed86%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
30%Ensemble oddsMissed45%Ensemble oddsEarned