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Red26
325513.9
96359.6
513710.8
Blue15
95385.4
33286.5
49816.8
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4232102050602615

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3255
#32
13.91.7
15.613.9
Auto1.5
Teleop11.9
End0.4
blue by 3.0
498
#28
16.81.7
13.812.1
Auto4.5
Teleop10.9
End1.4
Second
5137
#11
10.81.7
12.911.1
Auto4.1
Teleop5.1
End1.5
red by 4.3
3328
#43
6.51.7
8.26.4
Auto1.0
Teleop3.2
End2.3
Third
9635
#14
9.61.7
8.16.4
Auto5.1
Teleop3.9
End0.5
red by 4.2
9538
#29
5.41.7
8.46.7
Auto3.0
Teleop2.2
End0.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
16%Melody oddsMissed21%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
14%Ensemble oddsMissed19%Ensemble oddsMissed