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Red50
153821.8
334117.7
388216.8
Blue42
388015.5
325526.9
88706.9
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6649204060801005042

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1538
#28
21.81.3
22.921.6
Auto7.4
Teleop12.6
End1.7
blue by 5.1
26.90.3
23.523.2
Auto6.8
Teleop18.7
End1.5
Second
3341
#14
17.71.2
17.015.8
Auto7.1
Teleop9.2
End1.4
red by 2.2
3880
#20
15.50.3
15.815.5
Auto5.2
Teleop8.5
End1.9
Third
3882
#23
16.81.4
17.716.3
Auto4.2
Teleop11.1
End1.5
red by 9.9
8870
#32
6.90.5
7.36.9
Auto4.3
Teleop2.2
End0.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
58%Melody oddsEarned41%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
16%Ensemble oddsMissed9%Ensemble oddsMissed